Evolution and Our Thought Process

A common way for scientists to describe evolution and adaptation is to assign a purpose for the various features and behaviors that animals possess. For example: An anteater's long snout evolved to allow it access to out-of-the-way areas where its food lives. This wording insinuates that the animal evolved along a path, a direction, a plan. We also tend to mention that the goal of nature is survival, as if nature itself has an intelligent purpose. Remember, though, that species go extinct just as they survive; through the adaptations that either succeed or fail to prepare them for their ever-changing environment. It is important for scientists to remember this distinction when describing nature because the example above is not accurate for evolution; it suggests intelligent design.

Evolution, as we know, describes a series of random variations and mutations that take dominance over thousands of generations within every life form. Organisms that multiply very quickly, like viruses and bacteria, seem to evolve much faster because we can observe it right before our eyes. Meanwhile animals whose generations span many years appear to us as running in place. This distortion makes evolution difficult to grasp for many people who simply cannot imagine their future progeny, millions of years from now, with giant heads or tentacle fingers because they cannot see any difference in their ancestors. Part of the problem is our tendency to justify things or events with a reason for their happening; we are not happy just accepting happenstance as a result of random chance. It does not give our lives much meaning or context.

Looking at the adaptations we see today, it is hard to imagine that we are here right now as a result of purely random circumstance. Take syphilis as an example; with the advent of antibiotics, this strain of bacteria would certainly not survive today if it still worked like it used to 400 years ago. Back then, you would develop hideous boils on your face as a mark of your infection. In addition to hampering its carrier's mating agenda, syphilis can easily be treated with modern medicine. So, what does it do? It goes hidden. Today's strains of syphilis have subtle symptoms that are not easily detected. This allows the bacteria to spread amongst unaware sexual partners. Now, the idea that syphilis' adaptation was guided by some intelligence would certainly have a little clout if not for the fact that many other strains of bacteria have faded from existence in the same time span as a direct result of their own "adaptations."

Can organisms without self-awareness or technology evolve in directions that they intend? Is there intelligence or choice involved in the existence of the species that are alive today, or is this all a function of circumstance? Its easy to look back at history and say, "Everything that has happened thus far was necessary for this very moment to occur." This is true and it depends on your belief in whether an invisible guiding hand exists or not to answer the questions. This kind of thinking is unique to humans.

The larger fallacy at hand here is our present-to-past view of our world. Being naturally self-serving animals, humans possess intelligence that coddles their sense of importance. We often forget that intelligence is only a function of a large brain, subject to its own design flaws (as explained by the field of behavioral economics). These flaws influence us to create justifications for things that happened in the past as part of a scheme, possibly because our sense of worth has outgrown the reality of our existence. It is easy to look at something that has happened and then come up with evidence for why it did. Isn't it strange, though, that with everything we know about the past, we still cannot predict the future?

Think of predicting the future as preventing it from even happening. If one person knew the secret to stock market success, others would follow and soon the financial environment would normalize around it. If we could predict 9/11 (conspiracy not withstanding) then we would have been able to prevent it. Since it did happen, we look back and piece together all the reasons why, as if they'll help us moving forward. The problem here is that we are using what we know as a gauge for what is possible. That is, until something else comes along and exploits what we don't know; another attack, or the recent shootings at Fort Hood. Then we'll start the justification process all over again, hoping for the best. We are not comfortable considering it's likely that what we don't know far outweighs what we do.

I ask you what is more valuable: a shelf full of books that you've read, or one full of books you haven't?

17 objections:

crankytech said...

Actually, a shelf full of a mix of books read and unread is ideal.

New knowledge is good, but you still need to keep the old knowledge fresh. We can, based on our existing knowledge, predict things that will happen in the future. In fact, 9/11 was predicted, many times.

The problem is twofold:

1. People tend to focus on the symptoms rather than the disease. This wastes energy since you cannot cure the symptoms until you understand and deal with the underlying disease. The war on drugs and war on terror are prime examples of this.

2. People don't like complicated facts, and they don't like ugly truths. Just look at what they did to Ward Churchill over his "chickens coming home to roost" essay.

Andrew Gonsalves said...

crankytech: Thank you for your comment. I appreciate your willingness to speak up, but I find your response a bit lazy. I challenge you to predict, with any specificity, something that will happen in the future that hasn't been scheduled. I don't think it can be done. You are correct about your two points though.

Sebastian said...

Both? Two shelves.

Which is what we have now: History, present -- the book we are currently reading -- and the future.

Here's one for you: if intelligence is due to a large brain, how do you explain the repeating behaviour of insects/animals? Like flocking to the same mating spot, or repeating some behaviour -- something that they obviously don't have the 'intelligence' to dictate.

Is that genetic memory? Are they 'programmed' to go to a specific longitude/latitude?

crankytech said...

> I challenge you to predict, with any specificity, something that will happen in the future that hasn't been scheduled.

Sure thing.

For one, radioactive decay: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_decay

Also, I know that it will get light outside tomorrow.

I know that if I leave my toast in the toaster too long it will burn.

I know that if I let my car run out of gas, it will stop running until I fill it up again.

I know that one of my harddrives will crash, likely within the next month, because its defect rate has almost exceeded its spare sector count, and at the current rate of damage should fail completely within 20 days.

And the intelligence community was given ample warning of an impending attack:

March 2001 - Italian intelligence warns of an al Qaeda plot in the United States involving a massive strike involving aircraft, based on their wiretap of al Qaeda cell in Milan.

July 2001 - Jordanian intelligence told US officials that al-Qaeda was planning an attack on American soil, and Egyptian intelligence warned the CIA that 20 al Qaeda jihadists were in the United States, and that four of them were receiving flight training.

August 2001 - The Israeli Mossad gives the CIA a list of 19 terrorists living in the US and say that they appear to be planning to carry out an attack in the near future.

August 2001 - The UK is warned three times of an imminent al Qaeda attack in the United States, the third specifying multiple airplane hijackings. According to the Sunday Herald, the report is passed on to President Bush a short time later.

September 2001 - Egyptian intelligence warns American officials that al Qaeda is in the advanced stages of executing a significant operation against an American target, probably within the US.


So yes, predictions are possible, and in fact happen every day.

bob said...

@Sebastian

Surely the repetitive behaviour is learnt from within the organisms population. However I don't know what would happen for example if a migratory bird was 'abducted' from its flock at a young age, if it still would migrate on the same course.

In fact I've come to realise I dont know the answer to this...I am interested to know the answer if anyone has it.

crankytech said...

In fact, a significant amount of energy is spent in policing and defense circles to predict the movements of the enemy.

What makes the 9/11 scenario all the more comical is that the defense department had already run drills involving the shooting down of commercial airliners used as weapons.

Andrew Gonsalves said...

Sebastian: There are plenty of studies on migratory patters and hive location techniques. Why do I have to be the one looking it up? Help me out here.

crankytech: Everything you gave an example of is a type of schedule. I'm saying, can you predict the big stocks that will rally tomorrow? Can you say when the next terrorist will strike?

Also, in the face of all the evidence of the 9/11 attacks, we still could not prevent it. All the knowledge could not help us predict when, where or how. This is my point. As much as we know, there is always so much that we don't know. My guess is that your response is that the government knew, but chose to ignore the warnings. My response to that is: you're missing the point. I am not leaning on 9/11 as my only example. Have an open mind and consider this idea for pretty much anything else.

Knowing that the American League has won the MLB All-Star game every year since 1997 (excluding the 2002 tie), does that make them a 100% sure thing to win it next year?

What new trait will humans evolve to possess next?

crankytech said...

Andrew, by your definition then, everything predictable follows a schedule.
But really, in the end, EVERYTHING follows a schedule. Predicting them is a matter of information. Even the MLB all-star winner for next year is predictable, given the right information.

And we can predict when terrorists will strike. That's part of the anti-terrorism task force and interpol's job. They foil plots by collecting clues which allow them to predict the actions of the miscreants they hunt.

The problem here is that you're looking for an all-or-nothing answer, and no such answer exists. There are no truths; only probabilities.

My point in the 9/11 fiasco is that it was a major bungling between intelligence and execution. Incompetence allowed it to happen. Had more intelligent and more alert people been at the helm on that day, those planes would have been shot down well before reaching their targets.

But what you're arguing, if I understand you correctly, is that since it DID happen, it couldn't have NOT happened. I'm not sure if this is your intent, but if it is, it is faulty reasoning.

Andrew Gonsalves said...

crankytech: My point is simply this - I'm not going to take your word for it. Can you tell me on what day your hard drive will fail? Probably not. I know you want to say that my blanket statement has its holes, but we just don't possess skills to accurately predict how the future will play out. There are serious riches in store for people who can.

Bernd said...

On Schedules: This is certainly the most liberal definition of schedule I've seen in a long while. Many things are indeed predictable and not customarily described as scheduled. To call them scheduled is to invite misunderstanding and confusion methinks. Notably if radioactive decay is scheduled it indulges in the very sense of goal oriented personification you warn against in the introduction to you article. For it to be scheduled invites the notion that someone scheduled the decay, and "is not accurate for [mechanics]; it suggests intelligent design."

On predictability with enough information: In fact significant advances in our understanding (in physics in particular but not only) have demonstrated to us that this was an attractive albeit fallacious 19th century paradigm. The reality is many things are unpredictable and Heisenberg and Schroedinger are the most prosaically cited contributors to popular understanding of this, and Quantum Mechanics perhaps the most newsworthy field of exploration in that area of philosophy.

On books and shelves: Clearly the shelf with read books on it is more valuable. It's potential is in play now. I have read them. The shelf with unread books on it represent potential unrealized and is only as valuable as a) the likelihood of realizing that potential b) the scarcity of the books. The shelf with new books has no value to be because by b) I am literally swimming in books and can't escape them, I don't need a shelf of them and a) it is the time I make to read them that realizes value. Yes, I am aware it was a metaphor ... but hey, I'm feeling literal ;-).

Bernd said...

On intelligence and large brains: This is a semantic play of course. The intelligence Andrew refers to is by definition that which emerges from large brains. There is no doubt that intelligence is a very flexible word (check any dictionary) and can sensibly be used to describe things, metaphorical or literally that do not derive from large brains. Ironically the article mentions Intelligent Design, and the intelligence alluded to there most certainly isn't the product of a large brain (unless we have some very strange believers on board ;-). Then also there is the intelligence that preceded 9/11 and which crankytech describes. This ironically does depend upon large brains, but is not the kind I thing Andrew is talking about either ... in short it serves little to explore his meaning when it can be inferred.

On flaws: This is a fascinating value judgment given the context. The examples you provide are features of, not flaws in, that very intelligence. I am confident that "there are plenty of studies on" our penchant to "create justifications for things that happened in the past as part of a scheme" ;-). But a very common manner of advancing understanding is in fact to "look at something that has happened and then come up with evidence for why it did". This is almost a crucial and certainly common step on the path to knowledge. The next step will often be choice between dogma/bigotry and expanding awareness, that is to test the evidence. Check it out, see if it's right or not, see if it actually has predictive power, and whether it can explain what happened. If that proves too hard, the evidence remains, by those not on the path to dogma and bigotry, flagged a possible, hypothetical and/or theory, certainly not knowledge. And humanity seems fairly evenly divided between those in whom bigotry dominates those in whom humility dominates with the bigots perhaps holding the slight upper hand in numbers. Perhaps as interesting is that bigotry and humility resides in all of us, it's really a question of how and when they show that matters, the habits we demonstrate to those around us. There's not a one of us who has had some theories we'd just let go, like that, while holding on to others that we'll defend tenaciously because it appeals to us. All we can hope to do is maintain humility when it counts ...

Sub-blogging on ... ;-).

P.S. I had to read about Fort Hood and Ward Churchill. Praise to Wikipedia! I don't get a lot of news ... it's just noise (what do I really care about either in the end? more gun toting crazies and conspiracy theorists, what's new? well what's new in a sense is the impact we let them have on us in the information age I guess).

Andrew Gonsalves said...

Are my ideas really that radical, that all I seem to attract are contrary thinkers? I guess that's what I have to work with when I deal in "different thinking." I'm still waiting for a collective way to make predictions so that we're completely in control of our future.

crankytech said...

You'll be waiting a LOOOOOONG time.

And you should cherish the contrary thinkers. They're the ones who make you think.

Andrew Gonsalves said...

But... *I'm* the contrary thinker. That's my point. I wouldn't write these things if I thought everyone thought this way already. I think the fact that it is met with opposition is a testament to the very points I try to make. However, I won't stop you from speaking your mind. I certainly welcome it and it DOES make me think. I don't think there will ever come a day were I make the perfect argument where everyone agrees.

Harry Seldon said...

Just passing through and appreciating the much "Talebian" discussion !
To predict or not to predict that is the question.

Bernd said...

Where are the contrary thinkers? All I could see was Cranky insisting things could be predicted, Andrew stretching customary definitions of the word "scheduled" to embrace all of Cranky's examples of predictable things, and me suggesting that "justification" is not a flaw so much as a trait of the intelligence Andrew alluded to. Not a a lot of contrariness there to my mind, just a little exploration of meaning and terms. We now know what Andrew means by "scheduled" for example and it seems all agree that some things are "scheduled" and others are not predictable ...

And to cap it all off we seem agreed that polemic is in fact a good thing not a bad thing.

Nothing radical here that I've seen, bar perhaps a novel definition of "scheduled". Or did I miss some radicalness in the article and surprising contrariness in the comments.

Of course Blogger calling the comments "objections" is to invite polemic is it not?

A dictionary, encyclopedia and Google didn't help me decipher the word "Talebian" mind you ... perchance a reference to another Blogger of known polemic tendency?

Andrew Gonsalves said...

"Talebian" is in reference to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a very smart person. He wrote the book The Black Swan. It is partially responsible for some of the logic in my post here.

To clarify my "scheduled" nitpick: It is not a stretch to predict how a radioactive atom decomposes. Nobody is going give you a prize for saying that the sun will rise (which it doesn't, by the way - the earth just keeps rotating). However, can you tell me what the next hot internet website is going to be? Can you tell me how the Congo's political landscape will look in 10 years? There is no schedule and as Taleb explains to us, history doesn't crawl, it leaps. Common events are useless to us and do not move the world forward any faster than the ticking of the watches attached to our wrists.

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